In a strong statement addressing India’s water security concerns, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma emphasized that China cannot control Brahmaputra flow, despite constructing dams in Tibet. Sarma’s remarks come amid increasing public discourse over China’s hydropower projects and their impact on the river that sustains millions in Northeast India.
China’s Dams and Brahmaputra: Should India Worry?
Concerns have surged as China accelerates dam-building on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra’s name in Tibet). The massive Medog Dam near the Great Bend is the centerpiece of this effort. However, Sarma downplayed fears.
“China cannot control Brahmaputra flow entirely. Around 65% of the river’s volume originates from Indian tributaries and rainfall. Even if China reduces upstream flow, it might not significantly harm India,” said the CM.
This claim aligns with reports from India’s Central Water Commission, which state that most of the Brahmaputra’s volume is generated within Indian territory.
Why China Cannot Control Brahmaputra Flow: The Science Behind It
Majority Flow from Indian Side
India’s segment of the Brahmaputra gets its water mainly from three large tributaries—Lohit, Dibang, and Subansiri—all of which originate in Arunachal Pradesh. Combined with monsoonal rainfall, they contribute over 65% of the river’s annual discharge by the time it reaches Assam.
Fact: The Yarlung Tsangpo contributes less than 35% to total Brahmaputra flow in India.
This geographic reality supports Sarma’s argument that China cannot control Brahmaputra flow beyond a limited extent.
Internal Challenges Outweigh External Threats
Floods, Not Scarcity, Plague Assam
While international eyes focus on potential Chinese water blockades, Assam’s actual crisis is flood-related, not scarcity. Annual monsoons cause extensive flooding, destroying crops, homes, and livelihoods.
Sarma emphasized this:
“Our problem is not lack of water from China. It’s the excess of uncontrolled water in monsoon season.”
The state has launched projects such as:
- Brahmaputra Dredging Program
- Embankment Upgrades
- Flood forecasting via NE-SAC satellite data
Brahmaputra and India-China Water Diplomacy
Despite political tensions, India and China continue hydrological data sharing agreements, allowing India to monitor real-time water levels during monsoon peaks.
However, strategic analysts remain cautious. China’s upstream infrastructure, even if it can’t stop the Brahmaputra entirely, could disrupt lean-season flows or alter sediment patterns—with long-term ecological consequences.
Sarma’s Call for Confidence and Infrastructure Focus
Sarma urged Indians to remain vigilant but avoid alarmism.
“We must invest in better water management and flood prevention rather than react anxiously to Chinese activity.”
He added that Assam’s infrastructure upgrades and flood mitigation policies should be accelerated to future-proof the region, rather than wait for diplomatic interventions.
China Cannot Control Brahmaputra Flow—But India Must Stay Ready
The assertion that China cannot control Brahmaputra flow may offer short-term relief, but the region still faces enormous hydrological and infrastructural challenges.
🔹 Flood-prone districts in Assam need urgent attention
🔹 Sediment disruption and climate impacts must be studied
🔹 India must proactively engage in water diplomacy and local resilience building
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