China has officially begun construction on a massive $170 billion dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which becomes the Brahmaputra when it enters India through Arunachal Pradesh. The project, located in Tibet’s Medog County near the Indian border, has raised serious concerns in New Delhi regarding water security and ecological impact.
The dam, one of the largest hydropower projects in the world, will generate nearly 60 gigawatts of electricity. It is part of China’s ambitious push to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, India fears the project may lead to manipulated river flows, especially during times of conflict or diplomatic strain.
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Strategic importance of the Yarlung Tsangpo
The Yarlung Tsangpo is a transboundary river that flows from Tibet into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and then into Assam as the Brahmaputra. It is one of the most water-rich rivers in the Himalayan region and supports millions of people downstream.
China’s dam lies just a few kilometres north of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Due to the river’s origin in China, India has limited control over how much water flows into its territory. Hence, any large-scale alteration, such as a dam or diversion, creates strategic concerns for India.
Indian officials have expressed fears that the dam could be used to block or release water during monsoons, increasing flood risks in Arunachal and Assam.
What makes this dam different?
Unlike the smaller dams China built earlier, the current project is massive in scale. The hydropower station will use the sharp bend of the river known as the Great Bend to harness kinetic energy. This location is geologically sensitive and known for seismic activity, raising fears of potential earthquakes or landslides.
Moreover, Chinese state media has openly called this dam a “super project,” placing it alongside the Three Gorges Dam in terms of national pride. Its dual use for energy and strategic leverage adds to India’s unease.
India’s concerns: Water, ecology, and security
India’s key concerns regarding the dam include:
- Ecological impact: Any alteration in water flow could harm fragile ecosystems in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
- Flood control and disaster risks: Sudden release of dam water during conflict could lead to floods downstream.
- Lack of transparency: China does not share real-time hydrological data with India, making prediction difficult.
- Security threat: The dam’s proximity to the border gives it a potential dual-use role in geopolitical pressure.
Officials in the Ministry of Jal Shakti have already flagged the issue at high-level meetings. India also fears this project might set a precedent for more dams along the upper Brahmaputra basin.
What India plans to do next
India is preparing a multi-pronged strategy to deal with China’s dam project. First, the government is fast-tracking its own Upper Siang multipurpose project in Arunachal Pradesh. This dam, estimated at Rs 50,000 crore, will serve both hydroelectric and storage purposes, helping India assert its own riparian rights.
Second, India plans to increase monitoring and real-time satellite surveillance over the region. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) will assist in tracking dam construction and water levels in the upper reaches of the river.
Third, India is likely to raise the issue in diplomatic forums. While both nations signed a hydrological data-sharing agreement in 2013, India believes that the current situation demands more transparent and timely information sharing.
Finally, India is working with Bangladesh, which lies further downstream, to form a unified approach. Since both nations depend on the Brahmaputra for agriculture and drinking water, cooperation is essential to ensure river flow remains consistent and safe.
Experts warn of long-term impact
Hydrologists and geopolitical experts have warned that China’s dam-building spree could lead to long-term regional instability. Since China controls the headwaters of many Asian rivers, including the Mekong and the Indus, any policy shift could impact millions of lives across borders.
Professor Brahma Chellaney, a noted strategic affairs analyst, said, “China is weaponizing water in the Himalayas. India needs to counter this not only through infrastructure but also diplomacy.”
Environmentalists have also raised alarms about the possible displacement of wildlife, glacial melt acceleration, and silt deposition downstream due to the dam.
A diplomatic test in Himalayan waters
This new dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo represents more than just an infrastructure project—it is a test of India-China relations. With both countries locked in a tense border standoff in eastern Ladakh, any move that affects shared natural resources is bound to deepen mistrust.
India now finds itself needing to balance environmental protection, national security, and regional diplomacy. How it responds to this challenge may shape river management policies for decades to come.
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